Goldman Sachs ha indicato, come ogni anno, le proprie raccomandazioni “top trade” per l’anno che è appena iniziato. Eccole in dettaglio.
TopTrade #1: Position for more Fed hikes and a rebuild of term premium by shorting 10-year USTreasuries.
TopTrade #2: Go long EUR/JPY for continued rotation around a flat Dollar.
TopTrade #3: Go long the EM growth cycle via the MSCI EM stock market index.
TopTrade #4: Go long inflation risk premium in the Euro area via EUR 5-year 5-year forward inflation.
TopTrade #5: Position for ‘early vs. late’ cycle in EM vs the US by going long the EMBI Global Index against short the US HighYield iBoxx Index.
TopTrade #6: Own diversifed Asian growth, and the hedge interest rate risk via FX relative value (Long INR, IDR, KRW vs. short SGD and JPY).
TopTrade #7: Go long the global growth and non-oil commodity beta through long BRL, CLP, PEN vs. short USD.
Ecco invece i “Top 10 market themes” della banca d’affari sttaunitense.
1. Global Growth: Stable and Synchronized
2. DM Monetary Policy: No Motive for Murder
3. Drawdown Risk: Bear-Market Warning Signs
4. Emerging Markets: More Room for Growth
5. China: A Well-Managed Slowdown
6. Global FX: Soggy Dollar
7. US Policy Risks: If It Rains It May Pour
8. BondTerm Premia: Gradual Normalization
9. European Risk: Preparing for a Post-Draghi Euro area
10. Late-Cycle Imbalances: Illiquidity Is the New Leverage