A cura Joachim Fels Managing Director e consulente economico globale di PIMCO
Il 9 novembre ha segnato l’anniversario di tre eventi nella storia della Germania, uno per la speranza della democrazia, uno che evoca gli orrori più profondi, e il terzo ricordato come un raro momento di felicità nazionale collettiva.
Cento anni fa, poco prima della fine della prima guerra mondiale, il Kaiser tedesco abdicò e i leader socialdemocratici e comunisti proclamarono ciascuno una repubblica nello stesso giorno. Tuttavia, la prima democrazia della Germania, la Repubblica di Weimar, durò solo 15 anni prima di essere abilitata e sostituita dal governo nazista.
Ottanta anni fa, il 9 novembre 1938, le sinagoghe in Germania furono profanate e bruciate, negozi ebrei distrutti e molti ebrei attaccarono per le strade, arrestati e uccisi in quella che i nazisti eufemisticamente chiamavano “Kristallnacht”. Infine, il 9 novembre 1989, il muro che divideva la Germania fu distrutto quando l’Unione Sovietica e il regime della Germania Est crollarono.
Come evidenzia Fels, la Germania sta affrontando un futuro politico ed economico incerto. La crescita del PIL è rallentata bruscamente dall’inizio dell’anno e uno dei motivi è la decelerazione della crescita del commercio globale.
Secondo l’esperto di PIMCO, interruzioni temporanee nella produzione di automobili a causa dei nuovi standard ambientali contribuiscono a spiegare i volumi di produzione del terzo trimestre. Con la disoccupazione ai minimi pluridecennali, le imprese trovano sempre più difficile trovare lavoratori, il che pone dei limiti alla crescita, almeno per ora.
L’istruzione e la formazione dei milioni di immigrati dalla Siria e da altre regioni di crisi che sono entrate nel paese negli ultimi anni richiederanno tempo, ma secondo Fels dovrebbero alla fine ridurre alcuni dei vincoli lavorativi.
La principale nuova fonte di incertezza è tuttavia politica. Dopo 18 anni alla del partito CDU, Angela Merkel ha dichiarato che non tornerà alle elezioni per il partito a dicembre, con una netta possibilità che il suo mandato finisca prima.
Questo potrebbe accadere se uno dei suoi due avversari, Friedrich Merz o Jens Spahn, piuttosto che Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (AKK), ottenesse la leadership del partito.
La conseguenza più immediata di questi cambiamenti è che, almeno nei prossimi mesi, la politica tedesca diventerà ancora più introversa con una riduzione della leadership nelle questioni europee.
Guardando oltre i prossimi mesi, secondo l’esperto di PIMCO, questi movimenti nel CDU potrebbe rivelarsi positivi per due motivi:
- Friedrich Merz, in corsa per la leadership del partito, si presenta come europeista e in passato ha sostenuto un’Unione europea della difesa e un’assicurazione contro la disoccupazione su scala europea
- Se AKK diventasse presidente del partito, sarebbe più probabile che Angela Merkel restasse Cancelliere fino al 2021, a condizione che l’SPD non lasci la coalizione prima di allora. Con AKK che gestisce il partito CDU, la cancelliera Merkel potrebbe concentrarsi sul governo e sull’eredità politica.
Quindi, secondo Fels, c’è una buona possibilità che la classe politica tedesca si concentri su ulteriori riforme per rendere l’euro “a prova di crisi” nei prossimi anni.
Hope, Horror, Happiness: Germany’s Triple Anniversary
Joachim Fels, PIMCO Global Economic Advisor
I have just come back from a short trip to Brussels, Munich and Frankfurt. This and a special date made me share some thoughts on Germany and Europe this week.
In fact, November 9 this past Friday marked the anniversaries of three defining events in Germany’s history, one standing for the hope of democracy, another evoking the deepest horrors, and the third remembered as a rare moment of collective national happiness.
One hundred years ago, shortly before the end of World War One, the German Kaiser abdicated and the leaders of the Social Democrats and the Communists each proclaimed a republic on the same day. However, Germany’s first democracy, the Weimar Republic, only lasted 15 years before enabling and being replaced by the Nazi rule.
Eighty years ago, on 9 November 1938, synagogues in Germany were desecrated and burnt, Jewish shops destroyed, and many Jews attacked in the streets, arrested and killed in what the Nazis euphemistically called ‘Kristallnacht’. Following the Holocaust and World War Two, Germany was divided. Supported by the western allies, West Germany made a second attempt at democracy, this time with more success. The Bonn Republic was politically stable and economically successful. Meanwhile, East Germany became part of the Soviet Empire ruled by a communist party, with living standards increasingly falling behind those in the west.
Then, on 9 November 1989, the wall that divided Germany came down as the Soviet Union and the East German regime collapsed. That night, hundreds of thousands of east and west Berliners were dancing together in the streets. Less than a year later, the two states reunited, marking the beginning of the Berlin Republic.
Almost three decades later, Germany is facing an uncertain political and economic future. GDP growth has slowed sharply since the start of the year and probably even turned negative in the third quarter. One reason for the slowdown is the deceleration in global trade growth, to which Germany’s economy is geared, from last year’s lofty highs. This has weighed on exports and business sentiment. Temporary disruptions in auto production due to new environmental standards added to the mix and help to explain the dismal third-quarter output numbers. Some rebound appears likely as auto production gets ramped up again.
However, with unemployment at multi-decade lows, firms find it increasingly hard to find workers, which puts limits on growth, at least for now. Educating and training the millions of immigrants from Syria and other crisis regions that came into the country over the past several years will take time but should eventually ease some of the labor constraints. [As an aside, and linking it back to history, Germany’s Nazi past certainly contributed to the willingness to take on large numbers of refugees from the war in Syria. It is both ironic and sad that this decision in turn contributed to the rise of the anti-immigrant and nationalist AfD party in recent years.]
The main new source of uncertainty is political, however. After 18 years at the helm of the CDU party Angela Merkel, who grew up in East Germany, recently declared that she won’t stand again in the party leadership elections in December. While Ms. Merkel said she is ready to remain Chancellor of the Grand Coalition until the end of this parliament in 2021, there is a distinct possibility that her term ends earlier.
This could either happen if one of her two inner-party adversaries, Friedrich Merz or Jens Spahn, rather than her ally Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, often referred to as AKK, wins the party leadership contest. Alternatively, Angela Merkel’s coalition partner SPD, which has been beaten down heavily in recent regional elections and opinion polls, might decide to leave the coalition at some stage, likely leading to new elections.
The most immediate consequence of these changes is that, at least over the next several months, German politics will become even more inward-looking and even less likely to demonstrate leadership in European matters. Yet, this has been the case for some time now given the lengthy efforts to form a coalition after last year’s elections and then the quarrels within the coalition during this summer, which contributed to Ms. Merkel’s decision to give up the party leadership.
Looking beyond the next several months, however, the shake-up in the CDU may turn out to be a blessing in disguise from a European perspective, leading to renewed efforts towards deeper Eurozone integration as well as a looser fiscal stance in Germany. Here’s why.
First, Friedrich Merz, one of the two frontrunners (the other one being Merkel’s ally AKK) for the party leadership, while a staunch conservative, portrays himself as pro-European and has in the past advocated a European defense union and a euro-wide unemployment insurance (a first step toward a fiscal union). He also criticized the Chancellor for not having been more welcoming to French President Emmanuel Macron’s proposals for deeper integration made last year. If Mr. Merz became party chairman with an otherwise conservative agenda, he might be able to bring along more euro-skeptical members of the party for further steps towards integration.
Second, if AKK became party chairwoman, Angela Merkel would be more likely to stay Chancellor until 2021, provided the SPD doesn’t leave the coalition before then. With AKK then running the CDU party, Chancellor Merkel could concentrate on governing and leaving a political legacy. Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if she refocused on Europe in her remaining years, taking up some of President Macron’s proposals to deepen European integration in a post-Brexit world. Her coalition partner SPD would be a willing ally – witness Finance Minister Olaf Scholz’s proposal for a euro-wide unemployment insurance as an automatic stabilizer.
So, whoever wins the CDU leadership contest next month – Mr. Merz or AKK – there is at least a decent chance that Germany’s political class refocuses on further reforms to make the euro more crisis-proof in the coming years. Alas, whether this happens in time before the next crisis hits is highly uncertain. European unification, if it ever happens, certainly won’t be done by the 30th anniversary of German unification on November 9, 2019.