Morningstar this week released a pre-IPO analysis of luxury automaker Ferrari.
Key takeaways from the pre-IPO report include:
· Stable growth, consistently high profitability, and a strong global brand offer reasons for a Wide Morningstar® Economic Moat™ Rating, but automotive brands’ vulnerability to irreparable damage may limit Ferarri to a Narrow Economic Moat Rating.
· Low volatility in both revenue and profitability, as well as high margins, indicate pricing power for Ferrari. The company shares this trait with other wide-moat luxury goods companies, and deserves a luxury-goods company valuation in Morningstar equity analysts’ view. Morningstar analysts estimate an enterprise value of EUR 8.5 billion and an approximate EUR 5 per share equity valuation of Fca, which carries a Morningstar Rating™ of 4 stars.
· Potentially low stock float and major shareholder control may deter some investors. Fca owns 90 percent of Ferrari, and is expected to issue 10% of its stake in October’s IPO but to wait until the first quarter of 2016 to offer the remaining 80% stake. Also, Exor holds a controlling interest in Fiat Chrysler and is expected to retain a controlling interest in Ferrari post-spinoff.
· Before Ferrari begins trading separately in October 2015, Morningstar analysts see opportunity for investors to own Ferrari through Fiat Chrysler at a compelling valuation. They see Fca shares as overly discounted in the marketplace, trading at a 30% discount to Morningstar’s EUR 20 fair value estimate.